Business-Cycle Conditions
Retail sales

Retail Spending Suggests Caution

– November 15, 2019

Core retail sales were weak in October adding to concern about the economy. However, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Consumer sentiment

Consumer Sentiment Shows Resilience in Early November

– November 8, 2019

Consumer sentiment maintained a generally high level by historical comparison in early November.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Nonmanufacturing

Services and Manufacturing Sectors on Diverging Paths

– November 5, 2019

The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in October, diverging from the manufacturing-sector contraction. Erratic and unpredictable policies may be hurting manufacturing and the labor market.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Auto sales

Light Vehicle Sales Fell in October as Car Sales Hit New Low

– November 4, 2019

Auto sales fell in October but remain at a high level. While economic data is mixed, the labor market remains solid and the outlook remains cautiously optimistic.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Manufacturing

ISM Indexes Suggest Manufacturing Recession Continues

– November 1, 2019

The ISM’s manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory for a third consecutive month. Declining trade amid slowing global growth and erratic U.S. policies are keeping risks elevated.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Employment

October Employment Report Was Better Than Expected

– November 1, 2019

A solid October jobs report suggests continued economic expansion. However, growth has slowed and may leave the economy more vulnerable to erratic policies and elevated uncertainty.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
consumer spending GDP

Slowing Economy Still Supported by Consumers

– October 30, 2019

The economy expanded at a modest pace in the third quarter and remains vulnerable to continued erratic policy causing further damage.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Consumer sentiment

Consumer Sentiment Continued to Recover in October

– October 25, 2019

Consumer sentiment improved in October, maintaining a generally high level by historical comparison. However, negative headlines about on going trade wars and risks to the economy have caused volatility recently.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Durable goods orders

Durable-Goods Orders Suggest Slow Growth

– October 24, 2019

New orders for durable goods and core capital-goods decreased in September but continue in a broad flat trend, holding at a relatively high level, and suggesting slow growth.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Existing home sales

Existing-Home Sales Trending Flat; Upside Limited

– October 22, 2019

Existing-home sales fell 2.2 percent in September and are about even with levels from 2016. Housing activity is unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.

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